With the next BTC halving in 2028, it’s a good time to start considering a strategy if you plan to invest in Bitcoin cryptocurrency (if you haven’t already).
In April of 2024, the “Bitcoin halving event” permanently reduced the incoming supply by roughly 50%. This has a lasting and significant impact on cryptocurrency. Consider what would happen to the price of gold if it suddenly became twice as difficult to mine, or if half the gold mines in the world suddenly ceased to exist.
Just as we do with commodities like gold and silver, we can use stock-to-flow (S/F) Ratio modeling (i.e. ratio of circulating supply to the incoming new supply) to fairly accurately predict price trends in BTC.
If we follow historical data around the 3 previous BTC halvings (in 2012 / 2016 / 2020), we can see a clear trend in peak-to-peak price increases after each event.
- First halving on Nov 28, 2012 – BTC price per token was $12.50 and saw 93x growth to a cycle max price of $1163 just 1 year later in Nov 2013.
- Second halving on Jul 9, 2016 – BTC price per token was $638 and saw ~30x growth to a cycle max price of $19,333 17 months later in Dec 2017.
- Third halving on May 11, 2020 – BTC price per token was $8,475 and saw ~8x growth to a cycle max price of $68,982 18 months later in November 2021.
The timing of the peak is important, and it usually follows a pattern of an ATH roughly a year after the halving event. Using these data points for modeling, we can predict an actual price target of a conservative $138,600 price per BTC based on peak-to-peak increases post-halving epoch.
Given the data we have about each previous halving event, and the consistency of the effect on price movement, it is logical to assume one-third of the growth of the prior halving period. For the current cycle, that represents a conservative 2.65x overall peak-to-peak increase (30% of the prior 12x growth halving cycle). If the S/F ratio modeling is consistent, the maximum return should be realized roughly 18-20 months after the April 2024 halving, meaning BTC should peak again between September 2025.
See more charts below:
